The start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has brought the issue of European dependence on Russian natural gas to the fore, and how the crash could impose sanctions without suffering a possible Retaliation from Vladimir Putin.With energy shortages increasingly in evidence due to climate change, there is a debate whether Europe could stop buying natural gas from Russia, which today supplies around 40% of Europe‘s gas.
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Moreover, despite the start of the war and that Russian threats to cut off the supply of the fuel, so far the export is still running. In this article we will understand whether Europe can survive without natural gas from Russia and whether there are alternatives in Europe’s energy policy today, with two virtually unknown countries emerging as possible options.
Carbon Neutrality by 2050
To understand the growing process of Europe’s natural gas we need to look at the continent’s decarbonisation process, with European Union countries committing to achieving carbon emission neutrality by 2050.
With this, the aim of the European countries is to use natural gas more and more because it emits about 50% less CO2 than coal or oil.
Besides having several purposes such as heating, electricity production and use in industry and agriculture, and in the future there is the possibility of replacing it with renewable energy sources. In this context, Russia is the country with the largest natural gas reserves in the world, with about 24% of world reserves. Thus, Russia meets European demand with cheap gas, easy to transport and with high availability. If today Western countries are condemning the Russian invasion and seeking to reduce the nation’s dependence, very little had been done until then to change this fact.
The Nord Stream 2
The biggest example of this is that even after the start of the 2014 Ukraine war and annexation of the former Ukrainian region of Crimea, Europe has increased imports of Russian gas by around 25% since then. Germany which is one of the main responsible for this decided to approve the construction of Nord Stream 2 in 2018, the €10 billion pipeline stretching 1,200 km would transport natural gas from Russia to Germany across the Baltic Sea.
However, now with the pipeline ready Germany has decided to suspend final approval after the Russian invasion Ukraine, and unlike what one might think, there is a conflict within Europe over energy issues, between the two major powers of the European Union, Germany and France.
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Germany and the anti-nuclear energy bloc
In the case of Germany, which is the largest consumer of energy in Europe and the largest economy in the European Union, the country rejects alternative sources of energy that also emit little carbon, such as nuclear power for example, because for Germans this energy is dangerous and questionable due to toxic nuclear waste, deciding to decommission by the end of 2021 three of the six remaining nuclear plants in the country. Also leading the anti-nuclear bloc, formed by large countries like Italy, Spain, Austria and Norway.
France and the pro-nuclear energy group
On the other hand, France, which is the second largest power in the bloc and has about 70% of its Total Energy being nuclear, has led the pro-nuclear bloc along with Finland, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic and intends to modernise existing reactors by building 14 new reactors to meet its energy needs by 2050.
However, it is important to mention that building new nuclear reactors takes several years and is not a viable alternative for the short term. So the question arises whether Europe can survive without Russian gas in the short term. And the answer is NO. But it is possible to reduce that dependence substantially.
REpower European Union
After the invasion of Ukraine, the European Union introduced a plan called and ‘RePower European Union’, which mainly aims to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels by 2030. This plan also sets out a series of measures to respond to the 54% increase in Europe’s energy prices since 2020. Other issues are also discussed for example how to expand renewable energy, mainly wind and solar power, as well as seeking to diversify natural gas supplies.
How much is it intended to reduce from Russian natural gas?
The central idea of the project is to reduce the demand for Russian gas by 66% by the end of 2022, and the likely substitute for Russian gas, especially in the short term, would be liquefied natural gas, known as LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas).
Since the start of the conflict the United States has already sent some 60 methane carriers to Europe, surpassing Russian gas imports for the first time in January 2022, as well as Qatar showing willingness to expand its exports to the entire European continent.
What would be a possible solution for Russian gas?
However, the problem is still far from being solved, since besides this type of gas being more expensive than that supplied through pipelines, there is great competition in the demand for LPG and this is also linked to the long-term contract, with Asia currently dominating 3/4 of global LPG exports. Moreover, it is worth mentioning that even if the United States, Qatar and other exporters spare no effort to supply Europe, it will still not be possible to supply all the gas currently supplied by Russia.
With this, the most viable options for Europe at this time would be to expand gas supply via the Southern Gas Corridor, which is the natural gas supply route from the Caspian Sea regions, connecting the Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan, which is one of the largest natural gas fields in the world, with Italy via the Adriatic pipeline, which has been in operation since 2020.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cited that the country would be ready to expand gas supplies and is negotiating with Italy to do so, as well as the possibility of doubling the pipeline’s capacity in the long term.
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Another alternative involving Turkmenistan
Besides this, another alternative would be to get another Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project off the drawing board, which would link the route with one of the most isolated countries and one of the most eccentric dictatorships in the world, which holds the fourth largest natural gas reserves on the planet, Turkmenistan. So far the only big buyers in the country are China and Russia, which maintains the tactic of buying cheap gas from neighbours, most notably former Soviet republics rich in natural resources, and reselling it at higher prices in Europe.
That being said, Turkmenistan still has a large amount of natural resources available and is undergoing a transition of power from father to son, who was recently elected. If the new president of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimuhamedow is willing to open his country to sign more gas export contract to diversify its buyers, have a more open view to dialogue with the accident, both his country and Europe can benefit immensely.
So Europe was slow to act on Russian gas alternatives and now has to race against time to change this situation. At the moment it seems unlikely to reduce such a huge dependency in the short term, but in a few years this scenario could be quite different, and it would be something extremely destructive for the Russian economy. The question would be whether it is possible to unify thinking regarding Europe’s energy future, something that has been a point of debate among the great powers, as well as having several suppliers to diversify its energy in the future.
